Capital, Security, and Commercial Scale Are Converging in the Space Economy
At spaceNEXT 2026, Preston Dunlap, Founder of Arkenstone Capital and former Chief Technology Officer of both the U.S. Air Force and U.S. Space Force, delivered a keynote that traced the evolving intersection of technology, national security, and investment.
For Dunlap, space is not simply an industry vertical. It is a strategic domain — one that underwrites global stability, economic security, and technological advantage.
“My journey and passion,” he said, “has been at the intersection of technology, national security, and investment — all three legs of a stool oriented toward making the world safer and economies more stable.”
From Cost Barriers to Commercial Acceleration
Dunlap outlined the structural shifts that have enabled the current moment.
During the Space Shuttle era, launch costs hovered around $1.6 billion per mission. Roughly a decade ago, that figure dropped to around $90 million per launch. Today, Falcon-class launches approach $60 million — with additional competition emerging across small- and medium-lift providers.
“That’s like building rail lines or highways,” Dunlap said. “You make the pathway easier, more reliable, more efficient — and then activity follows.”
The same cost transformation has occurred on the satellite side. Where geostationary satellites once required $400–600 million investments per asset, low Earth orbit systems now operate at dramatically lower price points — enabling megaconstellations and new business models.
In 2018, there were just two prototype Starlink satellites in orbit. Today, there are thousands.
What once seemed implausible is now foundational.
Security, Governance, and the Risk Domain
But Dunlap was clear that commercial growth exists alongside geopolitical tension.
He described policy exercises conducted during his tenure in government examining what happens when space becomes congested, contested, and commercialized simultaneously.
China’s 2007 anti-satellite test, which created more than 35,000 pieces of debris, fundamentally altered how policymakers think about orbital behavior. Russian proximity operations near U.S. satellites have raised additional concerns about norms and deterrence.
“These are significant movements away from rules and norms,” Dunlap noted.
The result is not retreat — but innovation.
New companies are emerging to track orbital debris, provide space domain awareness, analyze hyperspectral imagery, and monitor global activity in ways invisible to the naked eye.
Risk, in this context, drives opportunity.
Civil Space and the Infrastructure Question
Dunlap also addressed the civil and exploration side of the equation, noting NASA’s renewed focus on accountability and infrastructure development beyond Earth.
The next phase of space activity, he suggested, will blur traditional boundaries:
National security
Commercial infrastructure
Scientific exploration
Resource utilization
Questions once theoretical are becoming operational:
Who develops lunar infrastructure? How are resources allocated? What governance frameworks apply beyond Earth? How should public and private capital align?
Follow the Capital
Perhaps the most data-driven portion of Dunlap’s remarks centered on capital flows.
Three years ago, global government spending in space totaled approximately $95 billion annually. Today, that figure exceeds $110 billion — with U.S. government spending alone rising from roughly $50 billion to $75 billion across NASA, NOAA, and the Department of Defense.
By comparison, global private capital investment in space currently hovers closer to $15 billion annually.
“Think about where the capital sources are from and where the opportunities are,” Dunlap said.
While the long-discussed trillion-dollar commercial space economy may still be forming, government remains the dominant early customer and underwriter of infrastructure.
For investors and founders alike, that reality shapes near-term strategy.
The “Spango” Moment?
Dunlap closed with a forward-looking observation.
If SpaceX were to IPO at a valuation near $1.5 trillion — a scenario widely speculated in financial circles — it would instantly rank among the most valuable publicly traded companies in the world.
He half-jokingly proposed a new acronym: “Spango” — merging space with the AI-driven “Mango” cohort of Microsoft, Anthropic, Nvidia, and others.
The underlying point was serious.
Space is no longer peripheral to frontier technology. It is converging with AI, advanced computing, data infrastructure, and national security priorities.
If that convergence accelerates, capital markets may follow.
For Dunlap, the path forward requires urgency, focus, institutional support, and sustained investment.
The ingredients are assembling.
The question is how deliberately they are aligned.
