Space Policy in 2026: Competition, Commercialization, and the Race to Regulate a Growing Space Economy
As the global space economy accelerates, policymakers face a complex challenge: how to foster innovation and commercial growth while maintaining security, regulatory clarity, and international stability in orbit.
At spaceNEXT 2026, a panel of policy experts examined what to expect in the coming year during a session titled “What to Watch in Space Policy: New Developments and Ongoing Trends for 2026.” The discussion featured Clayton Swope of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Mary Guenther of the Progressive Policy Institute, Paula Trimble of Muon Space, and Jamil Jaffer of the National Security Institute at George Mason University.
Together, they explored the evolving policy landscape—from the future of NASA’s Artemis program and the rise of commercial space services to geopolitical competition with China and the regulatory hurdles facing space companies.
Artemis and the Return to the Moon
One area of notable continuity in U.S. space policy is the commitment to NASA’s Artemis program, which aims to return American astronauts to the lunar surface.
Guenther emphasized that despite political changes in Washington, the broader strategic vision for lunar exploration has remained remarkably stable.
“We really need to applaud the continuity of the Artemis program and the bipartisan commitment to returning humans to the moon and eventually going on to Mars,” she said.
Current timelines continue to target a return to the Moon later this decade, though the program has seen adjustments as policymakers balance technological readiness, budgets, and evolving mission architectures.
Commercial Space and the Push for “Space Superiority”
Beyond civil space exploration, the panelists highlighted a broader strategic theme shaping U.S. policy: the pursuit of space superiority across civil, commercial, and national security domains.
Trimble argued that the concept extends far beyond military dominance.
“A lot of it is about defining what is commercial and then how we leverage it,” she said. “Policies are focused on enabling the private sector to not only support but actually lead.”
This shift reflects a growing recognition that the commercial sector is now capable of delivering technologies once developed exclusively within government programs. Capabilities such as satellite communications, navigation systems, and Earth observation are increasingly driven by private companies operating at global scale.
Competition with China
Geopolitical competition—particularly with China—remains a central driver of U.S. space policy.
Jaffer described space as a domain where the United States sees both strategic opportunity and rising security concerns.
“The administration wants to lean forward,” he said. “This is an area where they see opportunity for America to dominate and lead commercially.”
At the same time, China’s expanding capabilities—from lunar exploration plans to advanced satellite technologies—have raised concerns about strategic competition in orbit.
While some policymakers see room for limited international cooperation, Jaffer warned that many national security experts remain skeptical.
“I tend to view China as more of a threat in the space domain,” he said, pointing to growing concerns about satellite maneuvering capabilities and other emerging technologies.
Russia, once a dominant player in the space sector, remains relevant but has declined significantly as a commercial launch provider following sanctions and geopolitical tensions.
Regulatory Bottlenecks for Space Companies
As commercial space companies expand into new activities—from Earth observation to on-orbit servicing—regulation has emerged as a critical issue.
Guenther noted that the U.S. regulatory system is evolving but remains complex.
“Across the space regulatory landscape, you're seeing a lot of evolution,” she said. “But companies still need clearer processes and timelines to understand how their activities will be approved.”
Currently, multiple agencies—including NOAA, the Federal Communications Commission, and the Federal Aviation Administration—play roles in licensing commercial space activities. For companies preparing spacecraft for launch, uncertainty in the licensing process can pose significant business risks.
Trimble described how delays can affect real-world missions.
“You might be waiting until the day before launch to find out if you're licensed or if there's a problem,” she said. “That’s a huge threat to the success of commercial business.”
Panelists broadly agreed that clearer regulatory frameworks could help unlock innovation while maintaining safety and oversight.
Government as a Customer
Another major shift underway is the growing role of government as a customer of commercial space services rather than the owner of space infrastructure.
Instead of building and operating satellites directly, agencies are increasingly purchasing capabilities—such as communications, imagery, or data—through commercial providers.
Trimble explained that this approach allows the government to focus on mission outcomes rather than hardware ownership.
“The requirement should be about the problem you're trying to solve,” she said, “not prescribing exactly how industry should solve it.”
This shift mirrors earlier successes in NASA’s commercial programs, which helped catalyze companies such as SpaceX by sharing development risks and enabling new market opportunities.
Cultural Change Inside Government
Despite growing support for commercial partnerships, panelists emphasized that cultural change within government agencies remains a major challenge.
Policies encouraging innovation are only effective if organizations adopt new approaches to risk and procurement.
“Policy is great,” Guenther said. “But if no one follows the policy, nobody cares.”
Encouraging experimentation—and accepting occasional failures—may be necessary to accelerate innovation and maintain competitiveness in the rapidly evolving space sector.
What Comes Next in Space Policy
Looking ahead, the panelists highlighted several developments likely to shape the space policy landscape in the coming years.
Swope pointed to the need for international norms of behavior in space, similar to frameworks governing aviation and maritime activity. As satellite constellations grow and orbital traffic increases, global standards may become essential for avoiding collisions and managing shared infrastructure.
Jaffer highlighted another emerging concern: the security of satellites and space systems.
Cyber threats, satellite maneuvering technologies, and potential on-orbit conflicts could make space operations far more complex in the future.
Meanwhile, Trimble emphasized the importance of speed.
From regulatory reform to launch cadence, the pace of policy implementation and technological deployment may determine whether the United States maintains its leadership in the space economy.
Guenther concluded by pointing to one final priority: the development of commercial space stations that could replace the International Space Station later this decade.
With China currently operating the only active government-run station in orbit besides the ISS, she stressed the strategic importance of maintaining a strong American presence in microgravity.
“I’m excited to see what the next steps are for commercial space stations,” she said. “Given that China currently has the only other station in orbit, I hope we’re able to get that program on the right track quickly.”
As commercial activity expands and geopolitical competition intensifies, the next phase of space policy will likely determine how quickly the global space economy evolves—and who leads it.
